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March 2011 Archives

Chinese Scientific Output to Surpass U.S.?

The BBC is reporting that Chinese scientific output may surpass that of the United States by 2013.

In 1996, the first year of the analysis, the US published 292,513 papers - more 10 times China's 25,474.

By 2008, the US total had increased very slightly to 316,317 while China's had surged more than seven-fold to 184,080.

Previous estimates for the rate of expansion of Chinese science had suggested that China might overtake the US sometime after 2020.

That sounds concerning, but it should be pointed out that Chinese scientific publications are often of questionable quality.  The BBC article correctly points this out, but fails to note just how bad some Chinese scientific papers actually are.  As Nature News wrote previously, China's journals are "filled with incremental work, read by virtually no one and riddled with plagiarism."  The problem was so pervasive that the Chinese government put forth plans to terminate weak journals.

Before Americans start to panic, it is crucial to remember that quantity does not trump quality.

March 2011 Archives

Nuclear Crisis Response: How Not to Act

People are rightfully concerned about the unfolding nuclear crisis in Japan.  However, exaggerating the problem and overreacting are not helpful.  Here are two examples of how not to act:

Germany inexplicably and suddenly closed seven of its nuclear power plants, even though it was recently decided that they were safe enough to run for the next 12 years.  It's not clear if worries over a tsunami from France or Poland were responsible for this political calculus.ghostdetectorio9.jpg

Despite being told by President Obama that nuclear radiation will not drift to the United States, some Americans are buying iodine tablets, which mostly do not work.  They are also buying Geiger counters, just in case they need to monitor the neighborhood (or bust a few ghosts).

Reasonable people are reasonably concerned.  But, do not let politicians or salespeople exploit and manipulate you.  So, for now, please put the credit cards away.